On today's podcast episode, we discuss the state of some of our 2025 predictions, including GenAI’s influence on business growth, the influence of China’s e-commerce disruptors, the squeeze on retail media networks, and more. Then, we offer a few more slightly spicier predictions for the remainder of the year ahead. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Vice President Suzy Davidkhanian and Senior Analyst Carina Perkins.
The news: Cartier owner Richemont beat sales expectations for the quarter ended June 30, as wealthy shoppers weary of price hikes on designer handbags and apparel opted to spend their money on jewelry instead. Our take: Shoppers’ move away from products like Chanel handbags—seen by many as overpriced—and toward items like Cartier Love bracelets that are expected to better hold their value reflects the (partly self-inflicted) challenges luxury brands now face.
Ecommerce share varies greatly across categories. The average ecommerce penetration across US retail sales of 16.7% masks wide disparities: Rates range from as high as 70.1% for books, music, & video to just 5.9% for auto & parts.
The news: The vast majority of referral traffic from AI sources comes from desktop users while mobile traffic lingers in single-digit percentages. 94% of ChatGPT referral traffic is from desktop users, per BrightEdge’s The Open Frontier of Mobile AI Search report. Google Gemini’s traffic is 94% desktop versus 5% mobile, while Perplexity’s is 96% desktop and just 3% mobile. Our take: As search engines increasingly reduce organic visibility and prioritize zero-click searches, brands and publishers need to develop unique content strategies for different devices. Providing a mix of long-form, in-depth posts for desktop users along with snappy headlines and skimmable content for those on mobile could help achieve the best of both worlds
The news: The window to monitor AI’s reasoning in chatbots and agents is quickly closing, according to 40 researchers from Google DeepMind, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, and more. In a rare show of unity, the researchers stated that chatbots and agents are shifting from human-readable chain-of-thought reasoning to opaque, non-verbal methods, per VentureBeat. Our take: The collective call for transparency and standards marks an inflection point. Without urgent action, AI systems may soon outpace our ability to audit them—leaving marketers, creators, and regulators flying blind. Unseen logic means unchecked bias that could result in reputational damage.
The news: The breakneck speed of AI development makes bugs easier to miss and slower to patch, leaving platforms vulnerable to flaws and potentially leaked data. This week, Meta revealed it had patched a bug in January that would have let its AI chatbot users access others’ private prompts and responses, per TechCrunch. Key takeaway: As AI tools become central to marketing workflows, so do the risks tied to prompt exposure, IP leaks, and client data breaches. Marketers must approach AI adoption with the same scrutiny they apply to any vendor handling sensitive assets.
The news: OpenAI is preparing to launch a suite of office productivity tools that could let users bypass tools from Microsoft. Users will be able to build and modify presentations and spreadsheets that are compatible with PowerPoint and Excel, per The Information—without using Microsoft’s own apps. Our take: This suite could position OpenAI as a serious contender in the office software space, bypassing years of Microsoft and Google development. Companies using ChatGPT could improve workflows by managing documents, generating content, and executing repetitive tasks from a single interface.
The trend: US consumers are pulling back on summer vacations. The average trip budget has dropped 25.4% YoY to $3,132, per an Ipsos survey for Generali Global Assistance. Our take: The pullback in travel spending is a canary in the coal mine. As economic anxiety deepens, more consumers will likely pull back further, scrutinize discretionary purchases, and double down on value. Retailers, brands, and travel companies should brace for a more cautious consumer in the second half of the year. To stay competitive, they should look for opportunities to: Sharpen their value messaging to align with price-sensitive mindsets; Stay closely attuned to shifting consumer sentiment through ongoing survey and trend analysis; Position themselves as allies in financial wellness, offering not just products, but practical ways to help consumers stretch their dollars further.
The news: Shopify will not allow agents and other bots to purchase on users’ behalf without “final human review,” the company said in an update to the code used by merchants to operate their online storefronts. Our take: While AI agents aren’t yet reliable enough to be given free reign over purchase decisions, companies have to be prepared for a future where they soon will be.
The news: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup posted strong Q2 2025 earnings—and warnings about Trump’s mercurial economic policies. Our take: While revenues, credit card volumes and delinquency rates reflect positively about the health of the American consumer, their lived experience remains fraught.
The strategy: We’ve covered how smaller financial institutions (FIs) sometimes lose sight of differentiators in marketing campaigns when they focus on being “just as good” as bigger competitors. And The Financial Brand recently highlighted a similar trend of community banks straying from focusing on their community-centric strengths in marketing campaigns. So, what? It is important for smaller FIs to prioritize and improve their digital experiences. But for the time-being, they likely won’t beat bigger FIs and fintechs at their digital game. Instead, according to The Financial Brand, the true strength of community banking is its people. FIs should involve their staff in the customer journey, prioritizing quick human follow-up on leads over marginally improving online forms. This people-first approach fosters deeper relationships. In practice, it involves building experiences—both digital and in-person—that keep customers connected to team members who know them personally.
The news: Virtually all community bank leaders (99%) see embedded finance as important for their institutions' long-term survival, with 60% considering it extremely important, per a recent study by Treasury Prime. Our take: Embedded finance is a popular and effective avenue for community banking growth—if pursued with careful consideration and a priority on compliance. And there's an opportunity to maximize marketing opportunities when entering such partnerships.
The data points: Nearly 3 in 4 back-to-school shoppers expect to spend the same or more this fall, and more than 1 in 3 parents anticipate spending more than they did in 2024, per a PwC consumer survey. This suggests that even as consumers brace for higher prices—a consistent finding across University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys—demand remains resilient. Our take: The survey findings square with our back-to-school forecast, which expects sales to rise 3.0% YoY, down from 3.3% last year, marking the second consecutive year of declining growth. Retail ecommerce back-to-school sales are set to increase 6.8%, a deceleration from last year’s 7.4% gain. Though consumers are still spending, they’re becoming more selective. Retailers will need to lead with promotions, value-driven assortments, and early-season deals to capture share in this more cautious shopping environment.
The news: Zelle significantly increased its network in late 2024 and early 2025, adding 178 financial institutions (FIs) in six months compared to just 69 the prior year, per American Banker. Our take: Zelle’s expansion goals are clear, but the fintech could hit a ceiling with smaller FIs if it doesn’t mitigate the concerns raised by Family First Credit Union. Ultimately, Zelle's long-term success hinges on balancing its drive for network ubiquity with robust protections and equitable partnerships for all participating FIs.
The news: Messaging ads are gaining traction as a key opportunity to reach customers at critical moments after Meta debuted ads in WhatsApp. In an exclusive conversation with EMARKETER, Grant Parker, president of omnichannel ad platform Innnovid, offered his take on the future of the messaging medium. Our take: The path forward for messaging ads relies on how well the format integrates with the user experience rather than interrupting it—necessitating that advertisers invest in this opportunity while accounting for consumer attitudes.
The news: Lloyds Bank is reportedly considering acquiring Curve for approximately $162 million, per Bloomberg. Our take: Lloyds wants to acquire Curve to avoid falling behind other alternate payment methods. However, buying a third-party wallet might not be the best solution.
The news: Inflation ticked up in June in a sign that companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs to consumers. Our take: June’s CPI data shows the toll tariffs are beginning to take on consumers’ buying power. While real wage growth remains in positive territory for now, that could change quickly once more companies begin to pass on a greater share of tariff costs to consumers, as the vast majority have signaled they’ll do.
The news: Governments across the UK, EU, and Australia are mandating age verification online and reshaping how platforms handle user identity and access to content. Reddit now requires UK users to prove they’re 18 via selfie or photo ID to access adult or harmful content, in compliance with the Online Safety Act. Our take: Age assurance is becoming the new standard. Advertisers need to move now by adjusting targeting strategies, creative assets, and compliance practices to stay effective in an increasingly verified and government regulated web.
66% of U.S. adults have reduced nonessential shopping to manage expenses, according to March 2025 data from CivicScience.
The situation: Strong performances in ecommerce and pharmacy helped Albertsons beat top- and bottom-line expectations despite continued pressure across the grocery industry. Albertsons is also winning over more shoppers by making its loyalty program more rewarding and easier to use. Membership rose 14% in the quarter thanks to more deals, simpler ways to earn points, and bigger cash-back perks. Our take: Consumers remain laser-focused on value, especially at the grocery store. While food inflation has eased since the sharp spikes of 2021 to 2023, the impact of those increases—plus the threat of new tariff-driven price hikes—has shoppers watching their grocery bills closely. Albertsons’ 14% growth in loyalty membership last quarter signals just how eager consumers are for savings. With more people eating at home to stretch their dollars, Albertsons’ value-focused approach helped it outperform expectations and could drive strength in coming quarters.