The news: IDC has nearly doubled its worldwide smartphone forecast for 2025. Once projected at 0.6%, growth is now expected to hit 1%, fueled by iOS momentum, replacement demand, and a premium-device push, per 9to5Mac.

• Apple is the engine. IDC projects iOS shipments will climb 3.9% this year, cushioning the blow from China, where sales are set to fall 1%.
• The US market should expand 3.6%, while the Middle East and Africa will lead globally with 6.5% growth. Asia-Pacific, excluding China, will barely move at 0.8%.

Why it’s worth watching: The smartphone industry is undergoing a renaissance with the emergence of new form factors and the promise of smarter, generative AI (genAI) capable handsets. 

• IDC expects 370 million genAI-enabled smartphones to ship in 2025, representing 30% of the total. By 2029, that share could surpass 70% as on-device AI filters down to midrange devices. 
• That’s an interesting projection since 50% of smartphone owners today aren’t willing to pay extra for AI features, per a CNET survey. This could change if the value of on-device AI becomes more tangible.
• Foldables, meanwhile, are forecast to grow 6% YoY in 2025, up sharply from 2% last year, with double-digit growth by 2027. By then, Apple is expected to have its own premium foldable to compete with Samsung’s and Google’s offerings.

The smartphone race is tightening: In North America, Samsung, Apple, and Google are staking out distinct turf.

Google is pushing AI-first experiences with its Pixel line, Samsung continues to dominate the foldable market, and Apple is expected to release thinner iPhones next month as a bridge toward its long-rumored foldable in 2026.

Our take: Smartphones are entering a new cycle of innovation and moving upmarket. AI-first features and foldables will reset consumer expectations, open premium price tiers, and change which brands consumers choose and build loyalty toward.

GenAI promises device-native personalization and creation tools, while foldables push design into the premium space. Together, they reset expectations and justify higher pricing.

Advertisers and marketers should plan for richer, device-native experiences. Build campaigns that tap into AI-driven personalization, visual search, and generative content creation.