The trend: While many US schools are just beginning summer break, retailers aren’t wasting any time kicking off back-to-school promotions.

Case in point: Apple is reportedly launching its back-to-school campaign on June 17, per Bloomberg—a few days earlier than last year. While Apple is typically among the first to roll out seasonal deals, this year it won’t be alone. Wayfair is already featuring back-to-school essentials on its homepage, and Target is spotlighting trend-forward backpacks.

Amid rising macroeconomic headwinds, shoppers are expected to follow suit. Wayfair, for example, anticipates back-to-school traffic will begin to pick up this month, with peak activity typically running from late June through mid-August, per Retail Brew.

The context: Retailers are navigating a challenging terrain shaped by volatile trade policies that are driving up their costs and will likely lead to price increases and changes in consumer spending patterns.

• While the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found the inflation outlook for the year ahead dipped to 3.2% in May—the first decline this year—they remain well above the Fed’s 2.0% target, the benchmark many view as a sign of a stable economy.
• In response, retailers are moving up their promotional calendars both to lean into consumers’ growing emphasis on value and to lock in sales before household budgets come under greater pressure.
• They’re likely to find a receptive audience as many consumers expect tariffs to drive up the cost of school supplies, apparel, and shoes. Nearly half (45%) of consumers have pulled forward spending on electronics, while 58% of Gen Zers say they’ve accelerated big-ticket purchases like iPhones and laptops in anticipation of potential price hikes, per a survey conducted for ecommerce platform ESW.

The forecast: We expect the Trump administration’s evolving trade agenda to weigh on back-to-school sales. Some shoppers will scale back spending altogether, while others will seek savings by turning to discount retailers, private labels, or secondhand sellers.