The news: More pharma companies maintained financial guidance for the year in Q1 earnings calls this week despite the pending threat of Trump administration tariffs on drug imports. However, large drugmakers including Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and GSK agreed that the uncertainty of paused tariffs makes it difficult to plan ahead.

Yes, but: Amid the uncertainty, Pfizer and Lilly offered positive takes on pending pharma tariffs.

• Pfizer is pausing new US manufacturing and R&D investments while the tariff threat still looms, per CEO Albert Bourla on the company’s earnings call this week. However, he is optimistic about tariffs after talking with the administration, and said Trump would be in favor of tax reductions for US-produced products.
• Meanwhile, Lilly CEO David Ricks said tariffs may no longer be needed as the threat alone is driving US manufacturing commitments and shoring up critical supplies, per CNBC.
• GSK can absorb potential US tariffs through a combination of AI-driven cost savings and alternate sourcing, CEO Emma Walmsley said, per Reuters.

Trump himself alluded to a possible reprieve for pharma companies that are willing to move manufacturing to the US at a White House industry meeting on Wednesday, per The Guardian.

Zooming out: Drugmakers have pledged billions over the past three months to bring manufacturing back to the US to mitigate tariff effects and gain favor with the Trump administration.

• Roche committed $50 billion over five years for US manufacturing and R&D.
• Novartis promised $23 billion for seven new plants and three expansions.
• Johnson & Johnson pledged $55 billion over four years.
• Lilly added $27 billion to its already promised $23 billion in manufacturing investments.

Why it matters: Trump temporarily paused tariffs on prescription products, but is threatening 25% or higher tariffs on drug imports. The administration also launched a Section 232 national security investigation, which could lead to country-specific tariffs. Pharma companies are negotiating with the administration for exemptions or phased-in tariffs.

• Tariffs on pharmaceutical imports would raise US drug costs by almost $51 billion, according to a Reuters-commissioned report.

Our take: It’s noteworthy that some Big Pharma CEOs seem confident that a combination of US manufacturing commitments and satisfying national security demands will spare drug products, or at least earn time to adapt, in the Trump tariff wars. We agree, especially as Trump softens on other industry tariffs—but remain watchful under the unpredictable administration.

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