As Black Friday swiftly approaches, marketers are faced with finalizing strategies for an economically uncertain holiday season.

Shifting trade policies have left suppliers, retailers, and consumers unsure about pricing, budgets, and product supply.

• EMARKETER only forecasts a 1.2% growth in US holiday retail sales this year, well below the 4.3% growth seen in 2024.
• Almost three-quarters (71%) of shoppers plan to spend the same amount or less than last year, according to Salsify's 2025 Holiday Pulse Report.

Here's what marketers need to know.

Setting selling expectations

Although tariffs have many consumers feeling wary, Black Friday is still poised to be a huge day for holiday shopping.

• Some 73% of consumers plan to shop on Black Friday, according to Salsify's report, which is an 11-point increase from Salsify's 2024 Holiday Consumer research.
• 38% of consumers plan to shop online only, 11% in physical retail stores only, and 24% both online and in stores.

Younger generations will start holiday shopping earlier than older generations, with three-quarters of millennials saying they'll make holiday purchases before Black Friday, according to an August 2025 survey from McKinsey.

• However, 17% of Gen Zers say they plan to start their shopping on Black Friday, more than any other generation, per McKinsey.

Consumers still plan to take advantage of Black Friday deals en masse. Marketers should scope their strategies for widespread consumer interest, and can lean into the uncertainty with messaging that acknowledges cost-consciousness.

Keeping pace with evolving consumers

Consumers have shifted their shopping habits throughout the year in response to the economic climate and other factors, which might impact behavior through Black Friday and beyond.

Only 11% of consumers have not changed their approach to shopping with brands over the past year due to the economic climate, according to Klayvio's 2025 BFCM Forecast.

• Some 35% of consumers have switched to more affordable, value-focused brands; 30% have stuck with their trusted brands, but shop them less frequently; and 24% wait for sales or discounts to shop their usual brands, per Klayvio.
• Over half (55%) of US adult consumers say that discounts, coupons, or promotions would influence what they buy during the holiday season, according to June 2025 data from Inmar Intelligence.

Loyalty programs will also be influential factors for holiday shoppers.

• Almost a third (32%) of US adults say that loyalty rewards or member perks will shape their holiday purchases, per Inmar Intelligence.
• Some 13% of consumers say early access to sales based on their loyalty status would make them most likely to buy gifts for themselves or others during the holiday season, according to Klayvio.

"I think [retailers] can lean on their loyalty programs and do that in a whole lot of different ways that go beyond just a discount," our analyst Zak Stambor said on an episode of "Behind the Numbers." "It might be an early access to a sale, bonus points, or point multipliers. It could be member-only discounts."

Marketers shouldn't disregard the impact that value, loyalty, and personalization will have on shoppers in the coming months. Messaging and creative that ties into these themes will have a better chance of breaking through the holiday noise.

AI's Black Friday impact

AI's disruption of the marketing and retail industries will surely impact how consumers will approach Black Friday shopping.

Some 54% of consumers expect to use AI tools during their Black Friday through Cyber Monday shopping, according to Klayvio's 2025 BFCM Forecast.

• Top uses include comparing prices, searching for products, summarizing reviews, and recommending personalized gift ideas.
• Half of consumers say AI tools would improve their holiday shopping, according to Salsify.

Younger generations are poised to use more AI tools on Black Friday.

• Millennial shoppers (13%) are most likely to use AI chatbots to discover gift ideas, followed by Gen Zers (11%), Gen Xers (8%), and baby boomers (2%), according to Salsify.

AI-driven traffic to retailer sites has already started surging during promotional periods, with Adobe reporting a 3,300% increase during the July Prime Day shopping period.

"I think the majority of AI-driven purchases this holiday season is going to be the Rufus and those sorts of chatbots on Amazon, Williams Sonoma, or whatnot," said Stambor. "But I certainly think people are going to want to play around with ChatGPT and whether it can save them some money."

Marketers should be building up campaign best practices to catch the attention of LLMs. Through descriptive copy, high-quality images, and appealing to AI search parameters, brands can optimize for AI summaries, LLMs, and AI agents.