Key stat: Almost one-third (31%) of US consumers would prioritize spending on essential items this year if a trade war or tariffs increased the price of products they regularly purchase, according to a January survey from First Insight.

Beyond the chart:

• President Donald Trump’s proposed 10% to 20% tariffs could cause double-digit price hikes across five retail categories, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) analysis from November 2024.
• The number of buy now, pay later (BNPL) service users in the US will grow by 34.4% this year to reach 91.5 million, per our August 2024 forecast.

Use this chart: Marketers can use this chart to strategize how to message essential products to consumers should tariffs or a trade war increase prices. Retailers can use this chart to craft initiatives around highlighting essential products if prices rise.

Related EMARKETER reports:

• Retail & Ecommerce Earnings Q3 2024 (EMARKETER subscription required)
• Retail Trends to Watch in 2025 (EMARKETER subscription required)

Methodology: Data is from the January 2025 First Insight report titled "Recession Fears and Trade War Anxiety Fuel Price Obsession; AI is the Unexpected Bright Spot in 2025." A nationally representative sample of 1,131 US consumers was surveyed online during January 3, 2025.