The good news: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lifted its outlook for global GDP growth this year, citing tariff-related inventory frontloading, AI investments, and Beijing’s stimulus measures. It now expects the global economy to grow 3.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from its prior forecast in June.

By the numbers:

• US GDP is now expected to increase 1.8% YoY, compared with the OECD’s prior forecast of 1.6%.
• China GDP will expand 4.9%—slightly shy of Beijing’s goal, but above the 4.7% projected in June.
• The euro area is also set for faster growth of 1.2%, despite weakness in Germany and political chaos in France.
• Growth forecasts for the UK, Japan, India, and Brazil were also revised upward.

The not-so-good: This resilience may fade, the OECD warned. Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, as tariffs and uncertainty begin to take their toll.

Much of the uncertainty is flowing from the US, which is not only an outsize contributor to the global economy but also the primary instigator of the current trade upheaval.

• US GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2026, the OECD forecast, as the impact of tariffs filter their way to consumers and businesses.
• So far, companies have been able to shield themselves and their customers from the full effect of the highest effective tariff rates since 1933 by frontloading inventory and absorbing some of the costs.
• But once that inventory is gone, businesses will face the full tariff burden, which will then be shifted to consumers via price hikes.
• Higher inflation will reduce buying power, which, combined with a rapidly weakening labor market, is likely to curb consumer spending—the key engine for the US economy.

Go further: Read our FAQ: What would a recession mean for advertising, commerce, and financial services?