The projection: Retailers are expected to add fewer than 500,000 jobs in the final three months of the year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

• That would mark the weakest seasonal hiring since 2009, and an 8% decline from last year, which was already down 4% YoY.
• Seasonal hiring is not only a gauge of retailers’ confidence heading into the holidays, but also a test of their ability to provide the in-store service that drives sales.

The context: The slowdown in hiring is part of a broader labor market slump that recently prompted the Fed to cut interest rates.

• The forecast is yet another warning sign for retailers heading into the critical fourth quarter.