US retail will experience a rare deceleration during the 2025 holiday season as tariffs and ongoing uncertainty drag sales growth to its lowest level since we began tracking the metric in 2009. The atypical conditions will prevent brands and retailers from banking on the season to compensate for the rest of the year. Marketers should prepare for tighter consumer budgets and take advantage of opportunities in mobile commerce, social platforms, and AI shopping tools.

Key Question: How should retailers and brands prepare for the slowdown in retail and ecommerce sales growth during the 2025 holiday shopping season?

Key Stat: Total US retail sales for November and December 2025 will rise by a mere 1.2%, an uncharacteristic drop from the 2025 full-year growth rate of 1.5%.