The trend: Despite relatively upbeat holiday sales updates from several mall-based retailers, revisions to Q4 guidance point to mounting challenges.

The details:

• Abercrombie & Fitch said holiday sales were “strong” across its Hollister and Abercrombie brands, but its updated outlook suggests growth is moderating. The company narrowed Q4 sales growth guidance to around 5%, the midpoint of its prior range, and tightened its earnings per share (EPS) guidance to $3.50 to $3.60, with a midpoint below the $3.60 consensus.
• American Eagle Outfitters reported a “record” holiday season, with American Eagle comps in the low-single digits and Aerie comps in the low 20s. The company raised its Q4 operating income guidance range to $167 million to $170 million from $155 million to $160 million. That upside was tempered by roughly $50 million in tariff-related pressure baked into the forecast.
• Urban Outfitters said same-store sales rose 5% in the final two months of the year, including gains of 9% at Urban Outfitters, 5% at Free People, and 3% at Anthropologie. But same-store sales from February through December were up 6%, suggesting holiday momentum softened.
• Not all updates were cautious: Lululemon said Q4 sales and EPS will land at the high end of its prior guidance.

Implications for retailers: While several mall-based retailers managed to push past macro headwinds last year and outpace expectations, the latest guidance suggests those pressures are catching up to them. Even companies touting strong holiday performance are signaling moderation, whether through tighter guidance ranges, softer implied growth, or tariff-driven margin pressure. Consumer spending also appeared to become more cautious as the holiday season progressed, reinforcing signs of deceleration beneath headline results.

Looking ahead, those headwinds are likely to persist as consumers remain wary about their personal finances and the broader US economy. That environment favors brands with disciplined execution, clear value propositions, and differentiated products.

Birkenstock is a case in point: By constraining supply, the brand has been able to raise average selling prices, avoid markdowns, and still grow, with preliminary results showing revenues up nearly 18% on a constant-currency basis.