The insight: Malls are making a comeback this holiday season, with shoppers flocking to stores looking for deals and gifts, as investments in entertainment, restaurants, and other experiences boost shopping centers’ appeal.

By the numbers: Mall traffic recovered in November following weaker demand in September and October.

• Visits to all three mall types—indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlets—were positive on a YoY basis, rising by 6.4%, 4.8%, and 3.8%, respectively, per Placer.ai.
• While Black Friday was a major contributor to the November increase, mall visits in the period leading up to Thanksgiving were also up on a YoY basis—likely the result of a lengthened promotional season from retailers looking to get a head start on holiday shopping.
• Operators like Simon and the Mall of America also reported a surge in visits during Thanksgiving weekend: Simon said traffic was up 5.9% YoY on Black Friday, 6.3% YoY on Saturday, and 8.2% YoY on Sunday, while the Mall of America welcomed over 500,000 visitors between November 27 and December 1.

Overall, more people are expected to shop in malls this holiday season.

• Visits are forecast to rise 18% YoY, while the number of shoppers will increase by 18.7% YoY, per JLL’s 2024 holiday shopping report.
• 3 in 5 (59.5%) US consumers plan to shop in an enclosed mall over the holiday season, up significantly from last year’s 40.8%.

The big picture: Mall visits may be trending up—but malls themselves are not the retail powerhouses they once were, as more consumers turn to the convenience of ecommerce or stay closer to home for their shopping needs. That’s hurting retailers like Macy’s and Foot Locker, which are diversifying their store footprints to stay relevant with shoppers—not to mention mall staples like Express and Rue21, both of which filed for bankruptcy this year.

• From 2017 to 2022, the number of malls in the US declined by nearly 17% annually, per a report from Capital One Shopping.
• While top-tier malls like the ones operated by Simon have been largely unscathed by the decline—due to their desirable locations and emphasis on top-performing brands—many more are struggling to survive. The number of class C and D shopping malls fell by nearly 60% between 2016 and 2022, according to S&P Capital IQ and Coresight Research.
• Mall vacancy rates stood at 8.7% as of Q3, per JLL—more than twice the overall retail vacancy rate of 4.1%.

The future of malls: Malls’ holiday success is notable, but whether they can sustain that momentum into 2025 depends on how well they can adapt their offerings to suit consumers’ shifting preferences and ward off ecommerce’s encroachment.

• Many malls are reinventing themselves as lifestyle destinations, either by upgrading their food and entertainment options or by transforming themselves into mixed-use developments.
• Experiential concepts like Netflix’s brick-and-mortar Netflix House activations, which will feature food and activities based on popular series like “Stranger Things” and “Squid Game,” could help fill the void left by department stores.
• And with more Gen Zers expressing an interest in physical retail, offering pop-ups from buzzy brands like Shein, Skims, and Abercrombie & Fitch—or better yet, recruiting them as tenants—will help malls reach new generations of shoppers.

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