The insight: Retail buyers are leaning on AI and earlier ordering to prepare for a highly uncertain holiday season, according to a new survey by Deloitte.

AI’s helping hand: A strong majority—78%—are using AI tools to optimize their buying activities. The shifting tariff environment is fueling adoption: Around three-quarters are using AI to help address trade policy challenges.

• Nearly half (46%) of those using AI reported improvements in both supply chain management and pricing optimization—two areas that are under pressure as tariffs force companies to adjust sourcing and raise prices.
• 44% report that AI has helped sharpen product assortment and ensure items are available at the right time.
• Surprisingly, just 28% credit AI with improving demand forecasting—even though many companies have relied on the technology for some time to help predict consumer trends.

Glass half full: Despite caution about the consumer environment, the retail buyers surveyed by Deloitte are largely optimistic. Three-quarters expect sentiment to improve as the holidays approach, and they expect sales to grow 4.5% YoY—a significantly cheerier outlook than our own forecast.

Part of that confidence may reflect buyers’ sense that they have things under control—for now.

• Companies placed more than half their holiday orders by the end of May, nearly two months earlier than last year. Some 20% have paused shipments to wait for greater clarity on trade policy, while a similar proportion canceled unprofitable orders outright.
• Suppliers are also diversifying sourcing—a necessary move given hefty tariffs on many manufacturing hubs, though it carries its own set of risks.

Our take: Suppliers have done what they can to ensure shelves are stocked this holiday season. But that may not be enough to tempt wary shoppers: We expect holiday sales growth to decelerate sharply to 1.2% this year as tariffs test buying behaviors and weigh on confidence.

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