The winners: Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment and widespread uncertainty, several retailers and brands managed to outperform in 2025 by leaning into value and keeping their brand message consistent.

Walmart: Value positioning and speed

• The company raised prices on select items to account for tariffs but saw little change in shopper behavior, CEO Doug McMillon said earlier this year. That’s partly because the slow, deliberate rollout helped minimize sticker shock and preserve Walmart’s value-focused positioning.
• Its online sales are also climbing, supported by investments in delivery speed that encourage more frequent online orders, while its expanding third-party marketplace broadens customer choice.
• And Walmart isn’t standing still on innovation: The company announced a partnership with OpenAI in Q4 that will let Walmart and Sam’s Club customers make purchases directly within ChatGPT using its Instant Checkout feature.

On Holding: Premium performance niche

• On Holding continues to beat sales expectations despite offering some of the industry’s most expensive running shoes. The company is carving a niche in “accessible luxury” performance footwear, similar to how Ralph Lauren and Tapestry position themselves in fashion.
• Innovative releases like the Cloudboom Strike LS—the shoe worn by New York City Marathon winner Hellen Obiri—are helping On stay ahead of macro headwinds and maintain strong sales.

ThredUp: Well-timed market pivot

• ThredUp sharpened its focus on the US after exiting Europe. And with steep tariffs and the end of the de minimis loophole driving up the price of new goods, resale demand is poised to climb.
• Sales have jumped as ThredUp has become a go-to partner for retailers facing thinner margins and trying to attract value-driven, sustainability-minded shoppers.

Sprouts Farmers Market: Wellness and value

Sprouts checks many of the boxes grocery shoppers want: health, wellness, and value. And while it faces the same spending slowdown weighing on the broader food industry, it still has room to grow. The grocer plans to open 37 stores this year—two more than previously announced.

The losers: Unsurprisingly, the retailers that struggled largely rely on discretionary spending.

Target: Pricing pressure, strategic missteps

• Target has endured 11 straight quarters of flat or falling sales as nonessential spending slumps and rivals like Walmart win customers with sharper pricing and broader grocery and apparel assortments.
• Multiple stumbles in recent years, including its rollback of its DEI commitments this year, compounded Target’s challenges, leaving incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke with a tough turnaround project.

Beyond Meat: Premium fatigue

Beyond Meat’s sales have fallen over the past three years. Demand has slumped as cash-strapped consumers and margin-pressed restaurants become less willing to pay a premium for plant-based meat—products often viewed as overly processed and out of step with the surging Make America Healthy Again movement.

Constellation Brands: Demographics pressures

Constellation Brands has seen sales slip as younger consumers pull back on alcohol. But another pressure point has come from the US immigration crackdown—and its ripple effects on the Hispanic community, a key market for its Mexican beer brands—weigh on demand. The company said the Trump administration’s immigration actions have led many customers to scale back social gatherings, directly reducing demand for its products.

Implications for retailers: Even in a challenging environment, brands that differentiate themselves, execute well, and are disciplined about what they offer can thrive. A sharp identity isn’t just branding, but a competitive advantage.

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