Key Stat: US total media ad spending could fall to $394 billion in 2025 under a heavy tariff scenario, wiping out projected gains for the year, per our April 2025 forecast.

Beyond the chart:

• Temu and Shein both abruptly cut their Google Shopping ad spend in April, per an April 2025 Tinuiti report.
• Heavy tariffs would drag US Upfront Linear TV ad spending down by 23.5% to $13.4 billion, per our April 2025 forecast.
• Even with heavy tariffs, US retail media ad spend will grow by 8.5% in 2025, per our April 2025 forecast.

Use this chart: Media buyers and strategists can prepare scenario plans tied to tariff policy risks. Financial teams that budget forecasts should account for macro volatility and international policy shifts that could ripple through marketing plans. Agencies can explain why flexible ad budgets and cross-channel diversification are more critical than ever.

Note: Total media ad spending includes digital (desktop/laptop, mobile, and other internet-connected devices), directories, magazines, newspapers, out-of-home, radio, and TV. Digital ad spending includes banner ads and other (static display ads such as Facebook's Feed Ads and X's Promoted Posts)

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of various elements related to the ad spending market, including macro-level economic conditions, historical trends of the advertising market, historical trends of each medium in relation to other media, reported revenues from major ad publishers, estimates from other research firms, data from benchmark sources, consumer media consumption trends, consumer device usage trends, and EMARKETER interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands, media publishers, and other industry leaders.