Planning for the holidays may be harder this year as tariffs cast a shadow over both consumers and retailers.

“As of right now, we’re seeing a lot of unusual consumer behavior that’s likely to persist as long as tariff uncertainty persists,” said our analyst Sky Canaves, author of our “US Holiday 2024 Recap and 2025 Preview” report.

Still, there are steps retailers can take to prepare. Here are three key strategies to help navigate a challenging holiday season.

1. Prepare for an earlier start

With the introduction of Amazon’s October Prime Day—and copycat competitor events—consumers are starting their holiday shopping earlier than ever.

• This year, the holiday season could be pulled up even further, as consumers try to stockpile goods ahead of tariffs.
• “Shoppers, or at least those who can afford it, have been pulling ahead on purchases on everything from big ticket items like appliances and autos to small indulgences like coffee and chocolate,” said Canaves.

Consumers are also planning ahead for their toy purchases.

“Toys are a holiday category with rising consumer demand, as people learn that about 80% of toys are imported from China,” said Canaves.

• Yet November and December still accounted for roughly 75% of Q4 online sales last year—suggesting most shopping remains concentrated in traditional peak months.
• Retailers must be ready to meet early demand while maintaining strong momentum through the traditional peak months.

2. Plan for shifting consumer sentiment

Though sales growth will mirror last year's numbers, consumer confidence remains unpredictable. Shoppers will hunt for value, especially during the Cyber Five..

“Retailers need to remain agile and respond quickly to any shifts in consumer demand,” said Canaves. “They should prepare their promotions strategically to meet demand for low-cost items and provide value to consumers in categories that are being heavily tariffed.”

Retailers can also appeal to shoppers' emotions, crafting messages that encourage treating themselves after a tough year.

• “Some consumers might be able to absorb price increases more easily later on in the year and might be looking to splurge a little and enjoy the holidays,” said Canaves.
• To find the right balance between luxury and value, retailers can use targeted promotions to meet consumers where they are—financially and emotionally.

3. Optimize for mobile

Last year, mcommerce drove 55.0% of total holiday ecommerce sales and 10.9% of total holiday retail sales. And despite—or possibly because of—all of the uncertainty around tariffs, we expect mobile’s share of holiday sales to keep growing.

“Mobile’s momentum won’t go anywhere, especially with consumers becoming so price conscious and facing bigger constraints on their budgets,” said Canaves, noting consumers often use mobile to comparison shop and check prices, even while in store.

Fulfillment methods may still shift.

• “There could be an uptick in behaviors like buy online, pick up in store because ecommerce would get a lot more expensive with delivery and logistics costs,” said Canaves. “We may even see some retailers get rid of free shipping to offset tariff costs, which could result in more consumers purchasing online and picking up in-store.”

To leverage mobile’s role in the holiday season, retailers should prioritize app features that help consumers find the best deals, both online and in-store, and offer flexible fulfillment methods for value and convenience.

This was originally featured in the Retail Daily newsletter. For more retail insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.