The trend: A growing body of data shows Trump’s tariff-heavy trade agenda is slowing global shipments and squeezing US manufacturers. With the holidays looming, the fallout looks set to hit demand at the worst possible time.

The numbers:

• Global postal traffic to the US plummeted 81% on August 29 from the week prior, as 88 postal operators—including the UK, France, and Germany—suspended some or all services to the US due to uncertainty over duty collection and required data submissions, according to the UN’s Universal Postal Union. That was the day the US closed the “de minimis” loophole, which had exempted packages under $800 from tariffs.
• China’s exports to the US dropped 33% YoY in August, while overall growth slowed to a six-month low, according to China’s customs administration. With tariffs of about 55% still in place despite a temporary truce, businesses are already under strain and could face even steeper duties if talks collapse.

The administration promised its protectionist agenda would revive US manufacturing and jobs, but so far it hasn’t delivered. Factory activity shrank in August for a sixth straight month, and factory employment is down 28,000 since Trump took office.

The near-term impact: The holiday season will be the clearest sign yet of how this tariff regime is weighing on retail.