The contrast: Walmart and Target, two of the largest mass merchants in North America, will hand the reins to new leaders on February 1.

• John Furner, current chief executive of Walmart US, will succeed current CEO Doug McMillon.
• Target COO Michael Fiddelke will replace CEO Brian Cornell.

While both retailers are elevating insiders, the logic of continuity looks strikingly different given their business trajectories.

Walmart has a proven playbook that rewards a consistent approach, whereas Target’s slipping momentum could benefit from a fresh set of eyes to course-correct.

Walmart’s position: When McMillon hands over the keys to Furner, he will be delivering him a company that has navigated the shifting consumer spending patterns as well as anyone.

• When McMillon became CEO in 2014, Walmart’s ecommerce operations were a sleeping giant. In 2016—the earliest year in our forecast—Walmart.com’s US ecommerce sales were just $9.55 billion. While the company’s online strategy has gone through some fits and starts—including its $3.3 billion acquisition of Jet.com and deals for companies such as Moosejaw, ModCloth, and Bonobos—it largely delivered on its 2017 vision of selling “just about everything to just about everyone.”