The data: Consumers are approaching the holiday season with restraint: 27% of US adults expect to spend less from October to December, while just 22% plan to spend more, per a July survey from Experian and ad platform GroundTruth.

Hybrid shopping is becoming the norm. Eighty percent of consumers favor the in-store experience, per GroundTruth, and nearly 40% of US shoppers will split their purchases evenly between online and in-store. Just 8% will shop exclusively online and 8% exclusively in-store. The message: While online shopping leads for convenience, the physical experience helps seal the purchase.

Why it matters: The Experian survey jibes with other research indicating that economic uncertainty and rising living costs will lead shoppers to keep a close eye on their spending this holiday season. That means holiday sales gains will be limited. The current budget stalemate in Congress could pose another threat to consumers if the shutdown is prolonged.

• Average per-person spending during the season is projected to fall 5.3% YoY to $1,552, per PwC. That would be the first significant drop since the pandemic, when that figure fell 7.6% to $1,187.
• AlixPartners expects US holiday retail sales to rise 3% to 5% this year, down from 2024’s 4% growth. Its US consumer survey showed that most (80%) plan to spend the same or less this year, while 35% expect to cut back.
• Sales between November 2025 and January 2026 are expected to rise 2.9% to 3.4%, compared with a 4.2% increase last year, per Deloitte.

Implications for retailers: Discounters and value-oriented retailers should be well-positioned to draw holiday sales from consumers. Still, retailers chasing growth during the make-or-break holiday season will need to drive and reward value-seekers.

That means their marketing must be aligned with shopping behaviors.

• Messaging should spotlight value and affordability.
• Marketing campaigns should be stretched across the extended shopping season, not just concentrated on big events like Black Friday.
• Promotions and loyalty perks should be used to reward customers.

This content is part of EMARKETER’s subscription Briefings, where we pair daily updates with data and analysis from forecasts and research reports. Our Briefings prepare you to start your day informed, to provide critical insights in an important meeting, and to understand the context of what’s happening in your industry. Non-clients can click here to get a demo of our full platform and coverage.