Smartphones will continue to gain ground as digital sales shift away from computers and tablets. In 2027, mcommerce (sales made on smartphones, tablets, and other mobile devices) will near the tipping point of half of ecommerce sales.

Online sales growth will be driven by smartphones.

• Ecommerce is becoming mobile-first. Mcommerce will account for 43.2% of US ecommerce sales in 2023 and will just fall short of the 50% milestone in 2027. Smartphone sales already account for close to 90% of mcommerce sales and will grow by 16.7% in 2023, while tablet and other mobile sales are shrinking.

• Digital shopper and buyer growth is coming from mobile-native Gen Z. Overall growth in digital buyers has stagnated and will rise by less than 2% per year during our forecast period—and almost all new digital buyers will come from Gen Z. Their numbers will surge from 45.5 million in 2023 to 61.1 million in 2027. And their spending power will increase as more Gen Zers join the workforce.

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What are the implications?

• Brands and retailers should focus their ecommerce efforts on reaching Gen Z via mobile. The importance of this demographic and its preferred channels for shopping to future growth cannot be underestimated. Understanding Gen Z’s expectations when it comes to ecommerce will be critical to winning the cohort’s long-term loyalty.