The forecast: Deloitte forecasts retail sales to grow between 2.3% and 3.3% from November to January, which runs well short of the 4.8% growth in the final two months of the year that we expect.

• That would indicate a significant slowdown from 4.3% growth over that same period last year.
• Deloitte believes inflation will have an outsized effect on consumer spending. “Inflation is both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. “While declining inflation aids consumers' purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales.”