Middling retail sales growth and healthy-if-unspectacular ecommerce growth are both the new status quo in most major markets. Unexpected highlights still exist, but double-digit growth is increasingly hard to find. Ecommerce penetration is steadily rising once again, but digital’s share grab has become a slow march everywhere other than China.

Key Question: What is the outlook for worldwide, regional, and country-by-country retail and ecommerce sales in 2024 and beyond?

Key Stat: Worldwide ecommerce sales will increase by 8.4% this year—a low figure by the standards of the 2010s, but representative of the new normal for many countries. That increase will translate to nearly $500 billion in new spending.